3 Bad Sessions and a Test Match lost. Sadly this has been the bottom-line from the Rescheduled 5th Test Match between India vs England at Edgbaston.
The defeat at Edgbaston meant that India now are currently on a 3 match losing streak in Overseas Tests. The defeat not only ended their chances of winning a Test series in England after 15 years but also significantly hampered their hopes of qualifying for the 2021-2023 World Test Championship Final.
And to make things even worse, India docked 2 points for slow over-rate leaving their qualification scenario highly complex and complicated.
The Edgbaston defeat was India 's 4th defeat in the WTC 2021-23 cycle. Till date, India have played 12 Test matches in the current edition and are placed at fourth position with 52.08% PCT (Percentage of Points).
The teams ahead of India on the basis of PCT are Pakistan (52.38%), South Africa (71.43%), and Australia (77.78%).
Coincidently India had finished at the top of the table in the inaugural edition of the World Test Championship but ended up losing the finals to New Zealand.
Ironically, the Ashes defeat have daunted England's chances too. Inspite of winning four consecutive Tests, England under the leadership of Ben Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum, are placed in 7th position and cannot qualify for the WTC Finals.
Similarly the likes of West Indies, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and Bangladesh are already out of the championship race.
Having said so, with 6 matches remaining, India still has a slim chance of sailing through. Let us understand how.
First and foremost, India must win all of their remaining six matches to end up at 72 points that would take them to 68.05% PCT.
India are scheduled to play 2 Tests vs Bangladesh away and 4 Tests against Australia at home in the next edition of Border Gavaskar Trophy and they cannot afford even to draw a single of those matches.
On the other hand, India will require Australia, South Africa, and Pakistan to drop points so that they end up with less than 68.05% PCT.
Let us further analyse it mathematically.
Australia.
The Aussies are at the top of the pile with an impressive PCT of 77.78%.
Australia’s remaining fixtures:
Vs Sri Lanka (1 Test) (Away).
Vs West Indies (2 Tests) (Home).
Vs South Africa (3 Tests) (Home).
Vs India (4 Tests) (Away).
They must lose at least 4 matches and draw one game to finish below India. However having 5 Home games make the scenario highly unlikely also India will have to whitewash Aussies in their upcoming edition of Border Gavaskar Trophy.
South Africa.
The Proteas are 2nd with a PCT of 71.43% and have 8 matches remaining. They need to lose 3 of them and drop points in atleast 5 of those 8 matches to bring their PCT below India.
South Africa’s remaining fixtures:
Vs England (3 Tests) (Away).
Vs West Indies (2 Tests) (Home).
Vs Australia (3 Tests) (Away).
Out of the remaining 8 matches, South Africa has 6 away games which might be a cause of bother for them. Also India will keep their eyes on their Test Series against Australia where a likely drop of points will benefit India and their chances.
Pakistan.
Pakistan are currently placed 3rd with PCT of 52.38% and have 7 matches remaining. The Men in Green need to drop points in atleast 3 games to finish their PCT below 68%.
Pakistan’s remaining fixtures:
Vs England (3 Tests) (Home).
Vs New Zealand (2 Tests) (Home).
VS Sri Lanka (2 Tests) (Away).
Mathematically Pakistan are placed at the most advantageous position as they host England and New Zealand at Home. They also tour a depleted Srilankan side for 2 matches.
Given the following scenarios it will be interesting to watch how the 2nd season of World Test Championship shapes for its final stages.
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